New Churchill oddsmaker projects fluid, wide-open Derby
Churchill Downs news release April 16, 2026 7:51am
Photo: Carlos J. Calo / Eclipse Sportswire
Renegade figures to be the morning-line favorite for Kentucky Derby 152, but Churchill Downs morning line oddsmaker Nick Tammaro sees a wide-open race with Commandment and Further Ado forming a tightly grouped trio at the top.
“It would be foolish to ignore what’s happening in the market and the public reaction after the Arkansas Derby,” said Tammaro, who will set the Kentucky Derby morning line for the first time following the retirement of Mike Battaglia after 51 years at Churchill Downs. “Renegade has to be the favorite right now, but this isn’t a race where anyone is going to be odds-on or even close.”
Tammaro’s current projection lists Renegade at 9-2, Commandment at 5-1 and Further Ado at 6-1.
“I think Commandment is the most consistent horse in the field, and Further Ado fits right there as well,” Tammaro said. “In a typical race, you could make a case for any of the three on top. That’s what makes this Derby so competitive.”
Tammaro acknowledged the colt’s position atop the market is far from clear-cut despite his status as the projected favorite.
“From a pure handicapping standpoint, you can argue others have stronger credentials,” Tammaro said. “But the Derby isn’t run in a vacuum. You have to account for public perception, buzz and how the money is going to flow.”
With two weeks remaining, Tammaro emphasized how quickly that picture can change.
“This is the most fluid time of the year,” Tammaro said. “A strong work, a missed work, a good gallop and even chatter on the backside can move the market. There’s always a ‘buzz horse’ that takes more money than expected.
“You’re looking at a race where the favorite could be in that 4-1 to 9-2 range, with several others right behind him. That’s the definition of a competitive Derby.”
Entries and post positions for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks will be drawn Saturday between Races 3 and 4 on the opening day program from 2:15-2:45 p.m. EDT on the Paddock Terrace (weather permitting).
Commandment Further Ado Renegade Kentucky Derby
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RELATED PAGES
»HORSE:Commandment
»HORSE:Further Ado
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